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With nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

While it is not his best start to a campaign - he registered 11 strikes in his initial seven matches in two seasons ago and double digits last year - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, physical problems might significantly impact in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the honor so soon in the campaign.

First, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the slow start his regular challengers for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a English league attacker has historically scored from the total and standard of chances he has had.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the English top division so far this campaign from open play, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more quality chances to convert than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is shown by examining the total and standard of chances that attackers have encountered in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, 12 more than all other attackers.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had in fact attempted more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this campaign. His shots have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.

Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - because of a few simple finishes against West Ham and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 per shot is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the chances he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to score from in a reorganised City team than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as previously stated, not uncommon for Haaland. Following seven matches last season he had netted ten times - a quartet more than any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven more than the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

In fact this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League season the Egyptian attacker has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It isn't only Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Whether due to physical problems - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - protracted transfer stories in one particular striker's situation or merely because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the distinct favorite for the English top scorer award, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is considerably more open at this early stage because two world-class strikers have also started in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The reality Haaland has scored so many times and has the greatest expected goals of the three without having taken any penalties positions him as the frontrunner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are among the finest finishers in European football in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the competition remains open.